I struggle with this question a lot. How greenfield is the BPM/BPMS space? On the one hand, most business users I talk to have never heard of the space. On the other hand, almost every company has some type of process improvement effort going on. The question is how much of that is looking at software as an enabler. (FYI: This is what I see as the big difference between 1990s and now...We have done process improvement for a decade or more but only now do we have software to help us and automate our solutions.)
Ken Vollmer (Principal Analyst for Forrester Research) estimated that BPMS growth would go from $1.2B in 2005 to $2.7B in 2009 (Key Drivers for BPMS Growth - January 11, 2007). A billion software market is certainly not an immature market. But, with over 100 software companies in the general space, it is hard to say it is mature. Maturity usually indicates some consolidation and a short list of software companies with a stable product, long client list, and solid financials. We are starting to see that with a few companies that consistently come to the top.
BPTrends put together a good summary of what is driving BPM in their January 23rd newsletter. As you can see from the image below, it is a pyramid that breaks the trends down by Enterprise, Process, and Implementation level. I think the summary is that there is lots of change driving companies to think creatively and look at innovation. Process is one of the last easy bastions of opportunity and companies are looking at how to leverage what's in front of them.
So...my take is that it is a market with a lot of upside, but it has already moved through the early adopter stage and is "crossing the chasm" to become mainstream.

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